3nm process mass production, 2nm competition uncertainty increases

In terms of semiconductor cutting-edge manufacturing processes, Samsung foundry will temporarily adjust 4LPE to a complete process node in 2020-that is, the 4nm process will become the focus of Samsung's promotion for the next period of time. In addition, the news released by TSMC in October 2021 has basically made it clear that the N3 process will be slightly delayed, and 2022 may become the year of the 4nm process; it is almost hopeless for the iPhone 14 to catch up with the 3nm process.
 
However, it is basically clear that although chips using TSMC’s N3 process may not be available until the first quarter of 2023 at the earliest, mass production of the N3 process is clearly in the fourth quarter of 2022.
 
At the same time, we believe that Samsung’s 3nm GAA may be a little later than TSMC’s N3. Samsung started to use GAA transistors at the 3nm node as the focus, but in fact Samsung failed to advance as planned. And based on Samsung's current public data, its earliest 3nm process may have greater technical uncertainty.
 
As for Intel 3, even according to the plan, it will not be able to keep up with the 2022 shuttle bus at all. We believe that TSMC N3 will continue to maintain a dominant position in the market, and has a significant lead over the other two rivals for the time being. But stepping on the brakes on the N3 actually laid a hidden danger for the advent of the 2nm era.
 
On the one hand, the Intel 20A process is expected to arrive in the first half of 2024, and Intel 18A may be seen in the second half of 2025-Intel’s determination to return to the technological leadership at these two nodes is considerable; on the other hand, Samsung The 2nm process, which is expected to be mass-produced in the second half of 2025, will be its third-generation GAA structure transistor. That is, although its 3nm process is difficult to achieve a market advantage, it will technically provide strong support for its 2nm process. All of these have added uncertainty to the subsequent 2nm process market competition.