Bullish prices, can DRAM come out of the trough?

From January to February 2020, DRAM prices stopped falling and warmed up, and various research and securities institutions are generally bullish on DRAM prices in the first and second quarters. Since the second half of 2018, DRAM has experienced more than one year of decline. At this stage, while the market holds price expectations, the DRAM industry is also facing the uncertain impact of the global new crown pneumonia epidemic.

 
First-quarter rebound
 
After more than a year of downturn, in the first quarter of this year, standard DRAMs (mainly used in PC and other applications) and niche DRAMs (for consumer and custom markets) stopped falling and stabilized, and prices rose slightly. Demand for server DRAM is rising. It is expected that in the second quarter, server DRAM will be the main driving force for DRAM prices to continue to rise.
 
The latest report from the Semiconductor Research Center of Semiconductor Research pointed out that in the first quarter of 2020, DRAM prices rose slightly, and it is expected to achieve a maximum growth of 10% in the second quarter expected). However, due to the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it is expected that the increase in the third quarter will be within 5%, and the annual price increase in 2020 will be within 20%.
 
The increase in DRAM prices has also increased the confidence of the market and practitioners. Nanya Technology's January 2020 revenue increased 3.92% month-on-month, an increase of 5.68% compared to the same period last year. It is expected that DRAM prices will stop falling and stabilize in the first quarter of 2020. The new crown pneumonia epidemic will have an impact on the demand of the memory market, but the supply of DRAM and NAND Flash is tight. Therefore, it is estimated that memory prices will increase in the second quarter, and supply may be in short supply in the second half of the year.