2020 memory market forecast
The memory market environment in 2019 is greatly affected by the decline in DRAM and NAND prices. According to Jim Handy, chief analyst of Objective Analysis, the market will remain stable by 2020, and DRAM will bring huge pressure on profit margins due to the plunge in prices. Handy pointed out that prices may fall further. "The price of NAND flash is expected to increase by 5% next year, but DRAM will fall by 25%, so this will be a chaotic year. But when the dust settles, we believe that the memory market in 2020 will continue to be oversupplied.
The current low price of memory means that there are not many opportunities for new memory, because low-cost DRAM and flash memory can fully meet the demand. According to Handy: "New types of memory still need a long and hard struggle to compete with mainstream memory." And, according to the roadmap of memory manufacturers, both DRAM and NAND have a lot of room for development, so neither of these Will soon exit the market.
IHS Markit director Michael Yang also believes that emerging memory products are unlikely to flourish this year. "Emerging memories still face many obstacles," he said. The challenges they face include scaling to reduce costs to a reasonable price point and entering more application areas; in most cases, DRAM and flash memory will continue to follow Progress has been made in its development roadmap. It can be expected that the 128-layer Flash of most suppliers is ready to be deployed, but neither Flash nor DRAM will increase production particularly fast. From a historical perspective, the replacement of new storage technologies is not so radical, especially DRAM. The development of any new storage technology is a small step forward. "
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