DRAM contract price stops falling ahead of schedule in the first quarter of 2020

According to the latest survey by DRAMeXchange, the rising spot price of DRAM has changed the market atmosphere. Under the expected psychological factors, it is beneficial to the buyer's willingness to prepare goods in the contract market. At present, it is estimated that the contract price may advance to the first quarter of 2020 and stop falling.

 

According to Jimbun Consulting, due to the return status of the previous 1X nanometer manufacturing process, a large number of defective products were resold to the spot market at a low price, resulting in a particularly weak spot price trend. Although the return situation is still there, because the module factory and the distributors in the channel have begun to increase their inventory preparations, the consumption of these defective products has been effectively consumed, and the spot price has started to rise.

 

 

From the perspective of the overall supply and demand situation, after nearly five quarters of inventory adjustment, the DRAM market in the fourth quarter of 2019 is still slightly oversupplied. It will not be officially reversed until the middle of next year. However, based on historical experience, the price increase has always been faster than the reverse of supply and demand. Therefore, the consulting firm originally estimated that the average unit price of DRAM sales would stop rising at the beginning of the second quarter next year.

 

However, stimulated by the current increase in spot prices and the generally unsmooth production status of the server memory 1X nanometer manufacturing process, which affected the overall supply volume, therefore, Chibond Consulting revised its 2020 price forecast. Although the prices of standard memory, niche memory and mobile memory are still slightly lower than the previous quarter, server memory has the opportunity to lead the rise, driving the average unit DRAM sales price to remain flat compared to the previous quarter.